Markets rally on hopes for “pivotal” moves by central banks

Global equity markets rallied sharply during the fourth quarter of 2023. Signs of slowing inflation spurred investors’ hopes that the Fed and other global central banks could begin to reduce interest rates sooner than previously expected. Additionally, there is optimism that the U.S. economy could be primed for a “soft landing,” in which growth and inflation slow but the economy does not enter a recession. Developed markets outperformed their emerging-market counterparts for the quarter. North America was the strongest performer among the major developed markets during the fourth quarter, led by the U.S. The Far East region was the primary market laggard due mainly to underperformance in Hong Kong and Singapore. Eastern Europe was the top-performing region within emerging markets during the period attributable primarily to strength in Poland. In contrast, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—recorded comparatively smaller gains and comprised the weakest-performing emerging-market region during the quarter.¹ 

Global fixed-income assets, as represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, gained 8.1% in the fourth quarter. Corporate bonds were the top performers within the U.S. market for the month, while U.S. Treasury securities saw relatively smaller gains and were the most notable market laggards.² Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, particularly for all maturities of one year or longer. Yields on 2-, 3-, 5- and 10-year Treasury notes decreased 0.80%, 0.79%, 0.76% and 0.71%, respectively, over the quarter. The spread between 10- and 2-year notes narrowed from -0.44% to –0.35% during the quarter, and the yield curve remained inverted. 

As widely expected, the Fed maintained the federal-funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% following its meeting on December 12-13. In a statement announcing the continuation of the pause in its rate-hiking cycle, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) commented, “In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” During a news conference following the FOMC’s meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious note regarding the central bank’s efforts to tame inflation, commenting, “No one is declaring victory. That would be premature.” Nonetheless, Powell acknowledged that FOMC members are considering when to begin to cut interest rates as inflation slows. “That begins to come into view, and clearly it’s a topic of discussion,” he noted.

On the geopolitical front, long-simmering tensions in the Middle East escalated to war following a surprise attack on Israel by Hamas in early October. In addition to the casualties resulting from Hamas’ initial incursion into Israel, the militant group and some of its allies abducted more than 200 soldiers and civilians. A one-week ceasefire in the military conflict between Israel and Hamas expired on November 30, after the two sides could not reach an agreement on an extension. The truce had led to several hostage and prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas. Each side blamed the other for the failure to extend the ceasefire, and fighting resumed following the expiration of the truce. 

Elsewhere, President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping met in California in mid-November. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies agreed to resume military communications in an effort to improve relations between the countries amid speculation about China’s intention to invade Taiwan, as well as the Xi administration’s support of Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. At a news conference following the meeting, Biden noted that he and Xi had agreed that if there were concerns about “anything between our nations, or happening in our region, we should pick up the phone and call.” In late December, NBC News reported that Xi had informed Biden during the meeting that China’s government intended to reunify Taiwan with mainland China, though the timing has not yet been determined. Xi also said that China hoped to complete the takeover of Taiwan peacefully—not by force. A spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council declined to comment on the situation, according to NBC News.³ Global commodity prices, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index, declined in the fourth quarter. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices fell 21.1% and 16.4%, respectively, due to a significant increase in production in the U.S. and weakening global demand. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas price staged a rally in December, but still ended the fourth quarter with a 20.6% loss due to an increase in inventories and forecasts for above-average winter temperatures in the U.S. On the positive side, the gold spot price rose 11.0% for the period, bolstered by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, as well as higher demand spurred by investors’ hopes that the Fed may begin to ease monetary policy sooner than previously anticipated. The 16.0% increase in wheat prices during the quarter was attributable to a reduction in exports from Ukraine due to the nation’s ongoing conflict with Russia.⁴

¹All equity market performance statements are based on the MSCI ACWI Index. 

² According to the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index.

³  “Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China.” NBC News. December 20, 2023. 

⁴   According to market data from The Wall Street Journal.

Disclosures

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding SEI’s portfolios or any stock in particular, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, including futures contracts. 

There are risks involved with investing, including loss of principal. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. Narrowly focused investments and smaller companies typically exhibit higher volatility. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. High-yield bonds involve greater risks of default or downgrade and are more volatile than investment-grade securities, due to the speculative nature of their investments. 

Diversification may not protect against market risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. One cannot invest directly in an index. 

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